China’s new export controls on antimony, a crucial element for defense and energy sectors, are set to disrupt U.S. supply chains and heighten national security concerns.
At a Glance
- China announced export restrictions on antimony starting September 15, affecting six antimony-related products.
- Antimony is critical for defense (ammunition, night vision goggles) and electronics (semiconductors, batteries).
- China accounts for 48% of global antimony production and 63% of U.S. imports.
- The U.S. has not mined antimony since 2001 and relies heavily on imports.
- Antimony prices are expected to rise sharply due to the restrictions.
China’s Strategic Move Shakes U.S. Defense Industry
China’s recent decision to implement export controls on antimony has sent shockwaves through the U.S. defense and energy sectors. The restrictions, set to take effect on September 15, cover six antimony-related products, including ore, metal, and oxide. This move has significant implications for U.S. national security, as antimony is a crucial component in the manufacture of armor-piercing ammunition, night vision goggles, and various electronic devices.
The timing and scope of China’s decision have caught many industry experts off guard. Lewis Black, CEO of Canada-based Almonty Industries, expressed surprise at the move, stating, “Three months ago, there’s no way [any] one would have thought they would have done this. It’s quite confrontational in that regard.” This sentiment reflects the broader concern within the sector about the lack of alternative supply chains for this critical mineral.
China is America’s largest import source for antimony metal and oxide, and the second-largest import source for antimony ore and concentrate.
Today, they announced export controls.
In @heatmap_news, @GregWischer and I predicted such a ramping up of the China-USA mineral trade…
— Morgan Bazilian (@MBazilian) August 15, 2024
U.S. Vulnerability Exposed
The export controls have exposed a significant vulnerability in the U.S. supply chain. China currently accounts for 48% of global antimony production and a staggering 63% of U.S. imports. The United States has not mined antimony domestically since 2001, leaving it heavily reliant on foreign sources, particularly China. This dependence has long been a concern for national security experts, but the new restrictions have brought the issue into sharp focus.
The impact of these restrictions is expected to be significant and immediate. Industry analysts predict a sharp rise in antimony prices, potentially reaching $30,000 per metric ton. This price hike will undoubtedly affect the cost of production for various defense and energy-related products, potentially straining military budgets and civilian industries alike.
Seeking Alternative Sources
In response to this crisis, the U.S. is urgently seeking to diversify its antimony sources. Efforts are underway to secure supplies from countries such as Tajikistan and Australia. Additionally, domestic initiatives like Perpetua Resources’ plan to reopen the Stibnite Gold Mine in Idaho are gaining traction, though production isn’t expected to start until 2028.
The situation underscores the critical need for the United States to develop a comprehensive strategy for securing essential minerals. This includes not only finding new sources of raw materials but also investing in refining capabilities outside of China and advancing recycling technologies to increase domestic antimony recovery.
While China claims these export controls are for national security and not targeted at any specific country, the move is widely seen as part of a broader strategy of resource nationalism and maintaining leadership in the global antimony industry. This development highlights the intensifying competition between global powers for technological supremacy and resource control.
Looking Ahead
As the U.S. grapples with the immediate challenges posed by China’s antimony export controls, it’s clear that long-term solutions are needed. The House Select Committee’s announcement of a new working group on U.S. critical minerals policy is a step in the right direction. However, the success of these efforts will depend on swift action, substantial investment, and strategic partnerships with allied nations.
The antimony crisis serves as a wake-up call for the United States to reassess its approach to critical mineral supply chains. As global competition for resources intensifies, ensuring a stable and diverse supply of essential minerals will be crucial for maintaining national security and technological leadership in the years to come.
