Gallup poll results show a decline in Kamala Harris’s favorability, while Donald Trump’s ratings have surged.
At a Glance
- Kamala Harris’s favorability has dropped significantly.
- Donald Trump’s favorable ratings are on the rise, especially among independents.
- Harris’s infrequent public appearances and unscripted moments are factors in her decline.
- Trump leads Harris among independent voters by nine points.
Drop in Kamala Harris’s Favorability
Recent data from Gallup reveals a significant drop in Vice President Kamala Harris’s favorability. Despite a boost post-nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate, Harris has struggled to maintain this positive trend.
Frequent public scrutiny and perceived shortcomings during unscripted moments are major contributing factors. Democrats’ job approval rating of Biden is up eight points — to 89% — in the wake of his withdrawal from the presidential race, a move that many in his party were pushing for after his weak debate performance against Republican nominee Donald Trump in June.
On top of declining favorability, Harris has been unable to sustain the initial boost provided by Joe Biden’s endorsement. Although she has received strong support from her base, the enthusiasm among Black voters has shown a dip. This could impact her campaign down the line, as she heavily relies on their votes. Former President Donald Trump’s favorable rating dropped five points to 41%.
Nearly identical percentages of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump (46%) and Kamala Harris (44%) favorably in Gallup’s latest Sept. 3-15 poll, during which the candidates debated for the first time.
New data: https://t.co/NFwsBnW9Kn pic.twitter.com/sMgJ85Ntsy
— Gallup (@Gallup) September 18, 2024
Rise in Donald Trump’s Ratings
Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is experiencing a resurgence. His favorability ratings have significantly risen among independents, who are critical in deciding elections. Trump’s current favorability stands at 47%, a notable increase from previous months. This uptick is likely a result of recent Republican National Convention (RNC) events that have unified the party.
Trump also enjoys increasing favorability among people of color, with a rebound to 35% from 27% in 2020. These figures highlight a critical shift in voter sentiment and underscore the volatile nature of current political dynamics. Polling data suggests he is gaining traction in key battleground states, which will be crucial for his campaign.
Trump is more popular (or at least less unpopular) than Harris among Independents by a considerable margin.
That's a very big deal. Independents swung for Trump in 2016, and for Biden in 2020. They will be a big factor in who wins in 2024. https://t.co/T3x85xgiFo
— Dan K. Eberhart (@DanKEberhart) September 18, 2024
Impact on the 2024 Election
As the 2024 election approaches, these shifting favorability ratings indicate a tight race. Harris currently leads Trump in several battleground states, but her declining support among key demographics raises concerns.
Conversely, Trump’s increasing popularity among independents and other critical voter segments enhances his chances. “This race has snapped back to where it always was, which is a very, very close contest, amongst a very bitterly divided electorate, and that this election is going to be very, very close and it’s going to come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of states,” – Republican strategist Kevin Madden.
Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris and the subsequent Democratic support she received have energized the Democratic base. However, the question remains whether she can convert this boost into a sustained lead. Harris has her strengths, notably her support among women and younger voters, but the challenges ahead are significant.
