80,000 Tons of Beef—Price Drop LIE

A plate with a hamburger, hot dog, and potato chips on a picnic table

President Trump’s executive order boosting Argentine beef imports by 80,000 metric tons might hand you cheaper burgers, but America’s largest cattle group says you’re being sold a fantasy—and the real problem rotting the beef industry remains untouched.

Story Snapshot

Trump signed an executive order on February 6, 2026, opening 80,000 metric tons of Argentine beef imports to combat ground beef prices that hit $6.69 per pound in December 2025, the highest since the 1980s
The U.S. cattle herd plummeted to a record low of 86.2 million head in January 2026, down 8.6% since 2020, driven by droughts, wildfires, and Mexico import restrictions due to screwworm outbreaks
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association flatly disagrees that foreign imports will lower prices, arguing the move ignores entrenched meatpacker monopolies squeezing ranchers and inflating consumer costs
The order follows a December 2025 executive directive probing meatpacker cartels for price-fixing, yet the import expansion marks the first time the administration turned to a single foreign supplier as the solution

When Band-Aids Cover Bullet Wounds

The administration frames the Argentine beef deal as a surgical strike against soaring grocery bills, a temporary fix while the domestic herd rebuilds from years of climate disasters and disease-driven trade shutdowns. Four quarterly tranches starting February 13 will flood the market with lean trimmings—the stuff that becomes your ground chuck and fast-food patties. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins promises vigilant monitoring to gauge whether more intervention is needed. Yet the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, representing the backbone of American ranching, calls the premise fundamentally flawed: imports won’t budge the price tag because the real stranglehold sits in the middle of the supply chain, not at the border.

The Herd That Vanished

America’s cattle inventory collapse tells a brutal story of compounding crises. Texas and Kansas ranchers watched droughts shrivel pastures for years while wildfires consumed grazing land and feed supplies. The New World screwworm’s resurgence in Mexico slammed the door on cross-border cattle flows, severing a lifeline that once steadied feedlot inventories. By January 2026, beef cows had hemorrhaged 8.6% since 2020, leaving the nation with its smallest herd on record. Ground beef prices responded predictably, climbing from manageable to punishing, peaking at $6.69 per pound last December. Consumers felt every cent; ranchers, meanwhile, struggled to break even as input costs soared and buyer leverage evaporated into the hands of a few massive meatpackers.

The Real Cartel Nobody Wants to Fight

Trump’s December 2025 executive order targeting price-fixing in food markets acknowledged what cattlemen have screamed about for years: a handful of meatpackers dominate processing, wielding monopolistic power to suppress what they pay ranchers while jacking up retail prices. The Department of Justice and USDA were tasked with probing these giants for collusion, a bipartisan rallying cry from senators in cattle country who see wholesale-to-retail price gaps that defy basic economics. Yet six weeks later, the administration pivoted to Argentine imports rather than doubling down on trust-busting. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association welcomed the reciprocal trade access for U.S. beef in Argentina but made its position crystal clear: flooding the market with foreign beef sidesteps the core issue.

Kent Bacus and Colin Woodall, NCBA’s executive leaders, argue that packer concentration—not supply shortages—drives the price gouging consumers endure. When four companies control the chokepoint between ranch and retail, they dictate terms. Ranchers get squeezed selling cattle; shoppers get squeezed buying steaks. More Argentine trimmings might pad meatpacker inventories and profit margins, but nothing compels them to pass savings to checkout lanes. The administration’s July 2025 tax cuts for ranchers and October 2025 national security prioritization for the beef industry offered symbolic support, yet without cracking the packer cartel, these measures resemble rearranging deck chairs while the Titanic takes water.

Argentina Celebrates While American Ranchers Fume

Argentina’s Foreign Ministry hailed the proclamation as “unprecedented,” projecting $800 million in new export revenue as 100,000 tons of beef gain tariff-free U.S. access. For Buenos Aires, it’s a windfall built on American pain. For U.S. ranchers clawing through droughts and screwworm quarantines, it’s salt in the wound. The November 2025 trade framework that birthed this deal promised mutual market access, a silver lining the NCBA clings to—American producers could exploit Argentine demand in return. But that’s cold comfort when the domestic herd is at historic lows and foreign competitors fill the gap your family’s ranch can’t because wildfires torched your grazing land or because packers won’t pay you enough to cover diesel and feed.

The first-come, first-served import system starting February 13 guarantees packers, not ranchers, capture the benefit. They’ll buy cheap Argentine trimmings, blend them into ground beef, and pocket the spread while retail prices drift downward glacially, if at all. The administration insists it’s temporary, tied to 2026 supply conditions, but precedent suggests once import quotas expand, they rarely contract. If the U.S. herd doesn’t rebound fast—and climate volatility plus disease outbreaks offer no such assurance—foreign reliance becomes structural, undermining the self-sufficiency Trump’s rhetoric champions. The disconnect between stated goals and likely outcomes couldn’t be starker.

Making Beef Great Again Requires American Courage

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s skepticism isn’t rooted in protectionism for its own sake; it’s grounded in market realities the administration seems reluctant to confront head-on. Probing meatpacker cartels in December 2025 was the right move, but pairing it with an import surge six weeks later sends mixed signals: Are we serious about dismantling monopolies strangling American ranchers, or are we content to paper over symptoms with foreign beef while the disease metastasizes? Conservative principles demand free markets, but free markets require competition, not consolidation that rigs the game against producers and consumers alike. Antitrust enforcement isn’t big-government overreach when a handful of corporations weaponize market power to loot both ends of the supply chain; it’s the only path back to fairness.

The $12 billion in farmer aid announced in December 2025 and tax cuts saving families $2,100 annually demonstrate the administration grasps the urgency. Yet without breaking the packer stranglehold, these measures treat symptoms, not the cancer. If Trump truly wants to make American beef great again, the roadmap is clear: Accelerate DOJ investigations, pursue structural breakups if collusion is proven, and rebuild domestic herds through targeted drought relief and screwworm eradication partnerships with Mexico. Leaning on Argentina might ease grocery store sticker shock temporarily, but it won’t restore the ranching communities that define heartland resilience. The choice is between quick political wins and the hard, unglamorous work of restoring competitive markets—and only the latter honors the producers who feed this nation.