Azerbaijan’s brutal raid on Russia’s Sputnik news office signals a dramatic collapse in relations after the deaths of two Azerbaijani nationals under Russian custody, marking a significant power shift away from Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus region.
Key Takeaways
- Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have deteriorated significantly following the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani civilian plane by a Russian missile and recent deaths of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia.
- Azerbaijan has taken concrete steps to reduce Russian influence, including closing Russian cultural offices, restricting Russian media, and arresting individuals accused of being Russian agents.
- High-level communication between Presidents Putin and Aliyev has completely ceased since December 2024, with no direct contact amid escalating tensions.
- Azerbaijan is strategically pivoting toward stronger relationships with Türkiye, the European Union, and the United States while Russia’s regional influence continues to wane.
- The geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus is accelerating as Armenia also distances itself from Russia and pursues normalization with both Türkiye and Azerbaijan.
Violent Deaths Trigger Diplomatic Crisis
The relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia has reached a breaking point following police raids in Russia that resulted in the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijani brothers. President Ilham Aliyev has refused to accept what he characterized as attempts to “hush up” the incident, directly challenging Moscow’s narrative. The timing couldn’t be more provocative, coming just months after the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines civilian aircraft, which Baku has explicitly blamed on a Russian missile.
Azerbaijan’s response has been swift and severe. Authorities have raided the Baku offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan, arresting employees accused of espionage and acting as agents of Russian intelligence services. Additionally, Azerbaijan has canceled planned Russian cultural events, closed Russian-affiliated organizations, and implemented restrictions on Russian media operations within its borders.
Russia’s Declining Regional Influence
Russia’s long-standing dominance in the South Caucasus region is experiencing unprecedented challenges. The Kremlin’s influence has diminished dramatically since Azerbaijan successfully regained control over Karabakh in 2023, a military achievement that effectively removed Russia’s primary leverage point in Azerbaijani affairs. Further weakening Moscow’s position, Azerbaijan has significantly reduced its arms imports from Russia, turning instead to other suppliers including Israel and Türkiye.
“In a situation where Russia is bullying Azerbaijani citizens and threatening the Republic of Azerbaijan,” said President Zelenskyy, highlighting the opportunity for new alliances in the region. AP News
Moscow has retaliated with cyberattacks against Azerbaijani government websites and intensified pressure on the approximately one million Azerbaijani migrants living and working in Russia. Russian authorities have conducted targeted raids on Azerbaijani businesses operating in Russia, creating additional pressure points in this deteriorating relationship. These measures demonstrate Russia’s remaining tools of influence, though they may be pushing Azerbaijan even further into alternative partnerships.
Azerbaijan’s Strategic Pivot
President Aliyev has methodically restructured Azerbaijan’s foreign policy to reduce dependency on any single world power. The country has strengthened its strategic partnership with Türkiye while simultaneously pursuing improved relations with both the European Union and the United States. This diplomatic diversification provides Azerbaijan with greater flexibility and reduces vulnerability to Russian pressure tactics. Meanwhile, peace negotiations with Armenia are progressing without Russian mediation, further sidelining Moscow’s traditional role.
“Tragic incident,” stated Putin, the deaths of Azerbaijani nationals, using characteristically minimizing language that has only further inflamed tensions with Baku.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has demanded the “immediate release of Russian journalists detained in Baku,” but Azerbaijan has countered with its own demands for a comprehensive investigation into the deaths of its citizens and appropriate compensation. “This diplomatic standoff has effectively frozen high-level communications, with no direct contact between Presidents Putin and Aliyev since December 2024, marking an unprecedented rupture in bilateral relations,” according to AP News.
Broader Regional Implications
The Russian-Azerbaijani tensions are occurring against a backdrop of broader regional realignment. Armenia, traditionally Russia’s closest ally in the South Caucasus, is actively distancing itself from Moscow’s orbit while pursuing normalization with both Türkiye and Azerbaijan. The European Union has increased its engagement in the region, supporting peace negotiations and developing new energy partnerships with Azerbaijan. These shifts collectively represent a significant reduction in Russia’s geopolitical influence throughout the entire South Caucasus.
Despite the severe deterioration in relations, a complete rupture remains unlikely. Azerbaijan’s pragmatic foreign policy approach suggests that some form of working relationship with Russia will eventually be restored, though on significantly different terms than in the past. Economic interdependence, particularly in energy transportation networks and trade relationships, provides incentives for both sides to avoid a complete breakdown in relations. However, the era of Russian dominance in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy calculations appears decisively over.
